With over 30 years in the estimating business, I’ve learned one universal truth: numbers don’t lie. But they do require a trained eye to interpret. When bids come in and there’s a significant spread between them, it’s tempting to default to the lowest number. That’s human nature. But I can tell you from experience—that’s not always the best call. The lowest bid might not be the most complete, and the highest bid doesn’t necessarily mean someone’s trying to pad their margins. The key is knowing how to dissect the estimate, not just compare totals.
Start with Scope
The first place to look is the scope of work. Is it apples to apples? A $5,000 spread might make more sense when you realize one bidder is including full-service packing while another expects your team to have it boxed and labeled. You’d be shocked how often scope mismatches are the real reason bids are off.
Read the fine print. Look for what’s included—and more importantly, what’s not. Hidden costs have a way of creeping in later, and they usually show up in change orders or service add-ons that could’ve been predicted up front.
Labor and Time Assumptions
This is where real estimating experience separates fact from fiction. If one estimate shows the job taking two days and another shows five, you need to take a closer look. Are they assuming the same crew size? The same number of hours per day? The same working conditions?
Egress—how materials actually move out of a space—is a major factor that often gets overlooked. I’ve used simple math more times than I can count to show just how improbable some low-bid timelines really are. For example, let’s say a crew needs to move 1,200 dolly loads through a single exit. Even if you could push two dolly loads through that door every 60 seconds (which is already a stretch in the real world), that’s 600 minutes—or 10 hours—of nonstop, perfectly-timed pushing.
Now tell me how that’s going to happen in an 8-hour window, with setup time, breaks, elevator waits, loading, and coordination with other trades factored in. It’s not. That kind of math doesn’t lie—it tells you the estimate is either based on fantasy, or the estimator is hoping you won’t look too closely.
But here’s the flip side—math is just as valuable when defending a lower bid. I’ve won plenty of projects where a competitor overestimated the labor or missed a chance to build in efficiencies. Maybe they didn’t understand the flow of the building, or maybe they were just playing it safe due to lack of field time. Either way, I’ve been able to use the same egress math—down to the minute and the dolly load—to prove why my numbers make sense, even when they come in under a competitor’s.
The point is: whether you’re raising questions about a suspiciously low estimate or justifying one that comes in lean and efficient, the math is your best friend. It’s honest. It doesn’t play favorites. And when used correctly, it tells a story that’s hard to argue with.
Equipment, Access, and Logistics
Jobs aren’t done in spreadsheets—they’re done in the field. Ask questions about site access, parking, freight elevator usage, after-hours work, and staging. These logistical elements are often the hidden costs that separate a solid bid from a shaky one. If one bid doesn’t mention any of this and another spells it out clearly—that’s a red flag. Vague bids are risky.
Risk Management and Contingencies
A good estimate anticipates problems. A great one has a plan for them. Whether it’s weather, or coordination with other trades—estimators with field experience will bake in smart contingencies. They’re not trying to scare you. They’re trying to prepare you.
Watch for Red Flags
- Unusually low labor rates? Could be misclassified workers or a skeleton crew.
- Missing permit or insurance costs? You’ll be paying them one way or another.
- No mention of project management or supervision? That’s either an oversight—or the estimator assumes the project will run itself. It won’t.
Don’t Just Look at the Bottom Line
I always say, “A low bid that misses the mark costs you more than a high bid that delivers.” Look beyond the number. Look at the estimator’s reputation, experience, and clarity. If they’ve done their homework, the estimate should tell that story—line by line.
Final Thoughts
When reviewing competing bids, especially with big disparities, trust your gut—but verify with your head. Numbers don’t lie, but they do demand interpretation. Ask questions. Push for clarity. And if something feels too good to be true—it usually is.
Whether uncovering risk or defending value, math is your most reliable ally. It tells the truth. You just have to be willing to listen.
